Here are the 3 big things we're watching in the stock market in the week ahead

CNBC Finance

7 min read

The stock market enters the week ahead battered and bruised by the war in Iran. In the coming days, weary investors will also need to contend with a fresh batch of jobs data and a few stragglers on the earnings front, including Club name Nike . The conflict in the Middle East will remain the dominant driver of market action. Let's dig in and take a closer look at the other important events on our radar. 1. Jobs, jobs, jobs: We could be in for a volatile week. Investors will key off every Iran headline as they sit on the edge of their seats, waiting for the nonfarm payrolls report to drop before the bell Friday. The question everyone is trying to answer: Was the loss of 92,000 jobs in February simply a blip or the start of something far more troubling, like a bout of stagflation? Stagflation is the term to describe an environment of rising inflation alongside rising unemployment. The dynamic is a real problem for the Federal Reserve's dual mandate of price stability and full employment. A pickup in inflation means the central bank should be raising rates. But a pickup in job losses means it should cut rates to stimulate growth. Nothing is as inflationary as oil because it represents a large, unavoidable input cost. As long as the war in Iran remains ongoing and the Strait of Hormuz stays effectively closed, we're unlikely to see a meaningful retreat in oil prices. That means the inflation risks are real, as are the broader risks to economic growth. Not a great combo for stocks. Another overhang on the market besides the war: disruptions from artificial intelligence adoption. As Friday's software sell-off on reports of Anthropic's new Mythos model showed, investors are still jittery about AI's potential negative side effects. As investors sift through the jobs data in the week ahead, the goal is to gain at least some additional clarity on the economy's trajectory and the Fed's next moves. The labor market updates start Tuesday, with the release of the Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey for the month of February. The so-called JOLTS report will be followed by the ADP private payrolls report for March on Wednesday morning and the usual weekly jobless claims report on Thursday. The main event, of course, is Friday's aforementioned March nonfarm payrolls report. Keep in mind: The U.S. stock market is closed Friday for Good Friday, so we won't get to see traders' real-time response to the data. JOLTS is important because it provides insight into labor market tightness by analyzing the number of job openings, the rate of hiring, and the rate of workers leaving their jobs. It's generally lower priority than the ADP data and the government jobs report. Plus, JOLTS is a month further in the rearview mirror (covering February, not March), so take it with a grain of salt. This time around, though, it may help us understand what the heck happened to the jobs market in February that led to those 92,000 lost jobs. The second most important piece of jobs data is payroll processor ADP's employment survey. Unlike the JOLTS report, the survey reports on actual job increases and decreases by both sector and business size. While not a perfect proxy for the official government report, ADP is often used as a read-through for what Friday morning will have in store. That brings us to the nonfarm payrolls report, arguably the most important monthly economic release. February's disappointing data adds to the urgency of this update. As of Sunday, economists polled by FactSet expect to see 60,000 jobs added in March. Ideally, job gains will at least meet expectations. But in this moment of stagflation fears, any amount of additions will arguably be a win. That would give the Fed a bit more breathing room to wait and see how the Middle East conflict plays out. Another thing to watch is revisions to the February data, as the Labor Department accounts for late-arriving survey responses. 2. Other economic data: Outside of jobs, we'll get two checks on the consumer. First, on Tuesday morning, we will see the Conference Board's latest consumer confidence reading. The following day, the Commerce Department is set to release the February retail sales report, which economists expect to show a 0.5% month-over-month increase, according to FactSet data on Sunday. We'll also get a look at the state of manufacturing activity Wednesday, when the Institute for Supply Management's manufacturing index for March is released. The ISM's manufacturing PMI in February was little changed from the prior month, coming in at 52.4, which indicates modest expansion. The consensus for March is a reading of 52.3, according to FactSet. Finally, on Friday, the ISM's monthly checkup on services activity is due out, with economists expecting a modest decline from February (54.8 from 56.1), according to FactSet. 3. Nike earnings: The lone Club name reporting in the week ahead is Nike on Tuesday night. We aren't expecting much this quarter, particularly for its struggling China business. Its 17% revenue decline was such a black eye on its prior earnings report that the market didn't even care about green shoots in North America. At the least, we hope to see additional momentum in North America, which has been the initial focus of CEO Elliott Hill's turnaround efforts. Sales were better than expected in that market last quarter, up 9%, and profitability recovered somewhat in the face of tariff pressures. The stock has been limping into Tuesday's report, down 17% since the war broke out. Investors are understandably concerned about stagflation delivering a one-two punch to consumer spending. Unfortunately, Nike is unable to open the Strait of Hormuz itself, so we will be paying close attention to what it can control: its own costs. The more efficient the company can become now, the better positioned it will be for an earnings rebound when the operating environment improves. We still have faith in Hill, who took over as CEO in late 2024. But we have enough shares for now. We took on the position believing that the turnaround could take up to a year. The fall will be a year; if it hasn't turned by then, we will have no choice but to boot the name and free up space for something higher quality. Week ahead Monday, March 30 After the bell: ARKO(ARKO), Anadarko Petroleum (APC) Tuesday, March 31 10 a.m. ET: Bureau of Labor Statistics' JOLTS Report 10 a.m. ET: The Conference Board's Consumer Confidence Survey. Before the bell: McCormick (MKC), FactSet (FDS), TD SYNNEX (SNX) After the bell: Nike (NKE), nCino (NCNO) Allied Gold (AAUC), Dave & Busters (PLAY), PVH (PVH) Wednesday, April 1 8:15 a.m. ET: ADP Employment Survey 8:30 a.m. ET: Commerce Department's Retail Sales Report 10:00 a.m. ET: ISM Manufacturing PMI Before the bell: Lamb Weston (LW), Conagra (CAG) Thursday, April 2 8:30 a.m. ET: Labor Department's Initial Jobless Claims After the bell:Â Acuity (AYI) Friday, April 3 U.S. stock market closed for Good Friday 8:30 a.m. ET: Bureau of Labor Statistics' Nonfarm Payrolls Report 10:00 a.m. ET: ISM Services PMI (Jim Cramer's Charitable Trust is long NKE. See here for a full list of the stocks.) As a subscriber to the CNBC Investing Club with Jim Cramer, you will receive a trade alert before Jim makes a trade. Jim waits 45 minutes after sending a trade alert before buying or selling a stock in his charitable trust's portfolio. If Jim has talked about a stock on CNBC TV, he waits 72 hours after issuing the trade alert before executing the trade. THE ABOVE INVESTING CLUB INFORMATION IS SUBJECT TO OUR TERMS AND CONDITIONS AND PRIVACY POLICY , TOGETHER WITH OUR DISCLAIMER . NO FIDUCIARY OBLIGATION OR DUTY EXISTS, OR IS CREATED, BY VIRTUE OF YOUR RECEIPT OF ANY INFORMATION PROVIDED IN CONNECTION WITH THE INVESTING CLUB. NO SPECIFIC OUTCOME OR PROFIT IS GUARANTEED.

Get the most out of Gold Price Tracker & Alerts

Join thousands of users. Track progress, stay informed, and succeed with Gold Price Tracker & Alerts.

Download Now

Available on iOS & Android

Get Gold Price Tracker & Alerts

Free on iOS & Android

Install

Here are the 3 big things we're watching in the stock market in the week ahead

Read Next

Jim Cramer says potential stock market bottom is tied to interest rates, not war headlines

Broadcom agrees to expanded chip deals with Google, Anthropic

Get the most out of Gold Price Tracker & Alerts