Jim Cramer says potential stock market bottom is tied to interest rates, not war headlines

CNBC's Jim Cramer said investors shouldn't get comfortable calling a market bottom just yet, because the real driver of this market isn't geopolitics – its interest rates.

On Monday, Cramer noted that the S&P 500 may have bottomed last Monday, March 30, but emphasized that the turning point wasn't "anything related to stocks themselves," during "Mad Money." Instead, he noted, it was caused by interest rates. Bond yields pulled back sharply after Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell signaled last week, in at talk at Harvard University, that the central bank would hold off on raising interest rates despite higher oil prices.

"That's how important Powell's comments were," Cramer said, noting their impact to bonds, oil and most importantly for stocks.

The shift in expectations helped stabilize stocks, even as tensions in the Middle East escalated. Cramer stressed that headlines surrounding Iran, oil prices or even potential disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz didn't dictate last week's rally – rates did.

"If rates were set to go up," he warned, "we would have begun a bear market of pretty substantial proportions," pointing to the vulnerability of rate-sensitive sectors like housing, banks and utilities.

To be sure, Cramer said the market still faces meaningful risks. Inflation pressures remain elevated, geopolitical tensions persist, and companies may soon begin issuing weaker outlooks as earnings season ramps up.

The real test, he said, will come when more companies report results in the coming weeks. While this week is relatively light, earnings could reveal the true economic impact of higher energy costs and ongoing uncertainty.

The bottom line: "The bond market is in charge of the stock market, even in a time of war," Cramer said,

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