JPMorgan says Amazon Prime is worth 10x what members pay — a compelling case to hike fees
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CNBC Finance
5 min read
An annual Amazon Prime membership is becoming more valuable at the exact moment that subscriber growth is getting harder to come by. JPMorgan conducted a sum-of-the-benefits analysis of all the things that Prime offers at a $139 yearly cost in the U.S. The analysts concluded that a membership is worth more than 10 times that, or $1,437 per year. For example, they estimated that, on average, U.S. Prime members saved $550 on delivery fees in 2025, up 10% from the prior year. Prime Video, Prime Music, and Prime Gaming saved members $228, $120, and $156, respectively, by avoiding subscriptions to separate outside streaming services. Members also saved on groceries, restaurant deliveries, and reading. While great for consumers, this is also particularly notable for Amazon investors because Prime remains one of the company's most important competitive advantages and a key part of its retail flywheel, which Wall Street is watching closely this week as Amazon Prime Day kicked off Tuesday and runs through 11:59 p.m. PT on Friday (or 2:59 a.m. ET on Saturday). Rivals Walmart and Target also offer memberships and are holding competing sales this week. Of course, Club name Costco is membership-only. The growing value of Prime is a selling point for retention and new subscribers as Amazon faces a more mature membership base, especially in the U.S. The Prime membership base is heavily saturated, meaning it has already captured a large share of online shoppers, making it harder to drive meaningful growth from new signups alone. As we wrote on Monday , the Prime Day shopping event is becoming less about adding members and more about increasing the value for existing members. JPMorgan estimated that Amazon will have 370 million Prime users worldwide by the end of this year â 139 million U.S. members and 231 million international members. The analysts called Prime "one of the most scaled and fastest growing global subscription offerings." Scale is important, but so is retention to avoid a heavy churn rate. JPMorgan expects net Prime member additions this year of 23 million, a modest decline from last year's 25 million. Net additions account for new sign-ups minus cancellations. There could be room to capture more membership from online shoppers outside of the U.S., according to JPMorgan. Prime is available in 27 countries on five continents, including North and South America, Europe, Asia, and Africa. The analysts said that Prime penetration in existing international markets can go from the existing 33% to 45%, which would imply 75 million new members. Amazon can attract those members by doing what it has been doing for all these years: increasing the value of Prime through faster delivery and perks. According to the company, Prime members globally saved a total of $105 billion in delivery fees â savings made possible by Amazon's years of investment in logistics and fulfillment. When Prime launched in 2005, it offered free two-day delivery on about one million items, largely books DVDs, and CDs. Currently, Prime members can shop across more than 300 million items and more than 35 categories as Amazon expands one-day, same-day, and eventually ultra-fast 30-minute delivery options. Prime Day also plays into that strategy. This is the first year since 2021 that the summer shopping event is in the second quarter. JPMorgan believes the "earlier timing likely helps Amazon generate more demand." The analysts said the Prime Day shift could add $7 billion to $8 billion in incremental global revenue in the second quarter, excluding potential incremental revenue from advertising, Prime subscription acquisition, and other parts of the Prime ecosystem. Amazon tends to increase Prime prices every four years â so, it could be about time. The last increase came in 2022, when the annual U.S. membership rose from $119 to the current $139, with minimal churn. JPMorgan estimated a $20-per-year increase in U.S. Prime memberships could drive about $3 billion incremental annualized net sales, with further upside from international price raises. While Prime is compelling, the competition is not standing still. Walmart has Walmart+ at $98 per year, Target has Circle 360 at $99 â half that for Circle cardholders, and Costco comes with a Gold Star membership at $65 and a higher-tier Executive membership at $130. (Jim Cramer's Charitable Trust is long AMZN, COST. 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