Here are 3 big things we're watching in the stock market in the week ahead
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CNBC Finance
8 min read
Wall Street heads into another holiday-shortened week of trading after a rough few days for the AI trade . The health of the labor market will be a big focus for investors. Within our portfolio, there's a make-or-break earnings report that will determine whether we'll keep the stock around. The market will also grapple with a flare-up violence in the Middle East, despite the U.S. and Iran having agreed to a 60-day ceasefire while negotiating a more durable end to the four-month conflict. The weekend escalation comes after tanker traffic through the vital Strait of Hormuz picked up last week, leading to a further retreat in oil prices. U.S. benchmark WTI crude on Friday settled below $70 a barrel for the first time since the war started on Feb. 28. International oil standard Brent, meanwhile, is down 22% in June, on pace for its biggest monthly decline since March 2020, at the onset of the Covid-19 pandemic. The dramatic decline in oil prices as the strait reopened had helped ease concerns that the Federal Reserve would need to hike interest rates multiple times later this year to squash inflation. For investors, the question heading into the trading week is whether the fallout from the attacks â first by Iran on Thursday, followed by retaliatory U..S. actions â impacts traffic through the Strait of Hormuz and oil prices. On social media Sunday morning, President Donald Trump threatened Iran with annihilation. Now, here's a closer look at what to expect from the upcoming economic data releases and Nike's earnings report. 1. Economic updates: Outside of any additional Iran-related developments, this week's major macroeconomic reports can be divided into jobs and manufacturing. On the jobs front, we've got the May JOLTS (Jobs Openings and Labor Turnover Survey) out Tuesday, followed by payroll processor ADP's private payrolls report on Wednesday and the government's official nonfarm payrolls report on Thursday. Those two releases are for the month of June. The JOLTS report is notable because it provides insight into labor market tightness by tracking job openings, hires, quits, layoffs/discharges, and other causes of separation. Nonetheless, it is the least consequential of the three labor-market updates. At this point, the data is a month old and we already know the net number of jobs added to the economy in May. The answer, which we learned on June 5 , was a stronger-than-expected 172,000 before any revisions. The ADP report on Wednesday is an appetizer for what arrives Thursday. The Labor Department's nonfarm payrolls report is the big one, and we're getting it a day early this month given the market is closed Friday in observance of Independence Day. This is where we get the net additions for private sector and government jobs in June, along with a plethora of data including wage growth, workforce participation, and unemployment rates. The U.S. is a consumer-based economy, with two-thirds of gross domestic product coming from private consumption. The more folks at work, and the more money they make, the greater potential there is for economic growth. As of Friday, according to FactSet, economists are forecasting 87,500 payroll additions, with an unchanged unemployment rate of 4.3%, and 0.3% increase in hourly earnings. Wall Street, of course, is always trying to get ahead of everyone else, which is why the ADP employment survey is the second most important report of the week. While it may only report private-sector payrolls, and isn't from an official government source, investors still look at it for clues as to where the labor market stands to help position for the nonfarm report later in the week. As of Friday, economists are looking for the ADP report to show 92,500 job additions, according to FactSet. On the manufacturing front, we've got the Institute for Supply Management's monthly manufacturing report is due out Wednesday, followed by the Census Bureau's full report on factory orders on Thursday. Of the two, it's ISM's purchasing managers index (PMI) that will influence investors' thinking on the market. Because the report offers forward-looking commentary from industry sources, it's referred to as a leading indicator. In fact, on Thursday night, FedEx Freight CEO John Smith called out the ISM PMI as something they use to help gauge demand and manage the business. Factory orders, on the other hand, strictly includes what happened in the reported month, making it a lagging indicator. While it has value in tracking the economy over time, the market is always going to value forward-looking information over that in the rearview. 2. Nike earnings: It's mostly quiet on the earnings front, as we're still a bit out from when the banks start to report and officially kick off the next earnings season. However, Nike's f iscal fourth-quarter release on Tuesday night is a pivotal one for us. The stock has been crushed this year, and with shares trading at their lowest level in over decade, the market isn't expecting much. Part of the reason is that Nike already told the Street last week that its "fourth quarter results are expected to be generally in line with previously provided guidance," when excluding a one-time benefit from tariff refunds. That disclosure came alongside news that Pfizer executive David Denton would succeed Matthew Friend as CFO. The goal of providing that commentary is to assure the market that the CFO switch isn't related to anything unsavory happening with the accounting book. As a result, the major swing factors for Tuesday night's report will include sales trends in China, where Nike has really struggled in the face of local competition, and forward guidance. As Jim Cramer noted on our June Monthly Meeting, our patience has run thin with this disappointing position. That's why this is a make-or-break quarter; either we see material progress on the turnaround, or we will be forced to look for a better place to put our money to work. As of Friday, analysts polled by LSEG expect Nike to report earnings of 13 cents per share on revenue of $10.86 billion. 3. Spin-off complete: Honeywell Aerospace begins trading on its own Monday, capping the long-awaited spin-off from the company now known as Honeywell Technologies (formerly Honeywell International). Even before Honeywell announced in February 2025 that it would separate its crown jewel aviation unit into a standalone company, Jim had been urging the company to streamline its sprawling portfolio. A big reason why was that its conglomerate nature was obscuring the true value of Honeywell Aerospace. Aerospace is an attractive industry, and the breakup of the old General Electric has been incredibly lucrative for the stock of GE Aerospace . Now, we're finally getting that pure-play aviation stock from Honeywell, which allow the market to more fully appreciate its growth prospects and receive a proper valuation. Shareholders will get one Honeywell Aerospace (ticker: HONA) for every two shares of Honeywell (ticker: HON) they own. The Club owns 440 shares of HON. We plan to own shares of both Honeywell Aerospace and Honeywell Technologies, which is focused on business and industrial automation. On Friday, RBC Capital started coverage of Honeywell Aerospace with a buy-equivalent rating and price target of $300, which implies 36% upside from where HONA's when-issued stock ended Friday. Week ahead Monday, June 29 Before the bell: No reports of note After the close: AeroVironment (AVAV), Concentrix (CNXC) Tuesday, June 30 FHFA's home price index at 9 a.m. ET JOLTS for May at 10 a.m. ET The Conference Board's consumer confidence survey at 10 a.m. ET Before the bell: No reports of note After the close: Nike (NKE) , Constellation Brands (STZ), Progress Software (PRGS) Wednesday, July 1 ADP private payrolls at 8:15 a.m. ET ISM's manufacturing PMI Before the bell: General Mills (GIS), FactSet Research Systems (FDS), UniFirst Corporation (UNF) After the close: No reports of note Thursday, July 2 Nonfarm payrolls report at 8:30 a.m. ET Weekly jobless claims at 8:30 a.m. ET Factory orders at 10 a.m. ET Before the bell: Lindsay Manufacturing (LNN) After the close: No reports of note Friday, July 3 U.S. stock market closed in observance of Independence Day (Jim Cramer's Charitable Trust is long NKE and FDXF. See here for a full list of the stocks.) 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