Fedspeak vs. war deal: Here are the things that drove this week's stock market

CNBC Finance

5 min read

The Federal Reserve gave Wall Street a reality check this week, but the S & P 500 refused to let go of its back-to-back weekly wins. Positive war developments paved the way. The S & P 500 jumped 1.1% on Thursday as investors brushed off monetary policy concerns from the session before, which caused a 1.2% drop. The Nasdaq 's 1.9% gain made up, and then some, for its prior session loss of 1.3%. The U.S. and Iran signing a memorandum of understanding to extend their ceasefire and open the Strait of Hormuz sent oil prices plunging for the week, which supported stocks. Chipmakers also pushed higher. Here is a closer look at what drove Wall Street this week. New era at the Fed So, what caused that big mid-week selloff that nearly tipped the market negative? Simply put, investors were spooked by Fed policymakers projecting a possible interest rate hike to combat stubborn inflation. Those signals came after the central bank held rates steady at the end of its two-day June meeting. During Wednesday afternoon's post-meeting news conference, new Chairman Kevin Warsh said officials are committed to delivering on the Fed's goal of bringing inflation down to 2%. Warsh cut down the closely watched Fed meeting policy statement and announced a series of task forces to reshape the agency. The market's losses intensified during Warsh's news conference Wednesday and into the close, marking the worst performance for the S & P 500 on the first "Fed day" under a new chair since 1994. Still, stocks bounced back a day later and finished the shortened four-session trading week in the green. The S & P 500 rose 0.9% for its 11th winning week in the past 12. The Nasdaq gained 2.4%. The market was closed Friday for the Juneteenth holiday. Chipmakers on a tear Our chip stocks kept winning this week. Club holding Intel advanced 10.6% on Thursday and hit records after President Donald Trump said Apple would work with the semiconductor company to develop and design chips in the United States. That brought Intel's weekly gains to 7.6%. Nvidia and Broadcom , two other Club chip names, followed suit, up 2.9% and 4.7%, respectively, Thursday. Arm was up nearly 5% and hit an all-time high. For the week, Nvidia rose 2.7%, Broadcom jumped 7.7%, and Arm ended 15.4% higher. The iShares Semiconductor ETF (SOXX) rose nearly 7.3% over the period. Jim Cramer has been hot on Intel lately, and Thursday's news just reinforced his conviction. We added to our position on Tuesday. Intel's foundry business and its crucial role in supplying central processing units to data centers are key reasons we initiated earlier this month. Jim called Intel his favorite stock on Wednesday during the Club's June Monthly Meeting . "This is my No. 1 name," he reiterated on Thursday's Morning Meeting. "It's not Nvidia anymore." To be sure, the strength in chip stocks didn't extend as much into broader tech. Club holdings Microsoft, Amazon , Meta Platforms , and Alphabet took some major hits Wednesday on the Fed speak as investors rotated into "safe haven" groups. Except for Microsoft, the rest of them did end the week higher. But their weekly gains pale in comparison to most of our chipmakers. Meta and Amazon advanced 1.8% and 2.5%, respectively. Google parent Alphabet rose 2.3%. Microsoft, the laggard of the group, shed 2.9% over the stretch. War on hold (for now) Optimism around the U.S.-Iran war sent stocks surging at the start of the week after Trump announced that the two countries had agreed to a memorandum of understanding aimed at forging lasting peace. On Friday, there were supposed to be follow-up talks after both sides signed the MOU. But those talks did not happen. The agreement gives the U.S. and Iran 60 days to make a final peace deal. We added to our Capital One position because the consumer bank benefits from lower oil prices. U.S. crude dropped nearly 10% this week, and the national average for a gallon of unleaded gasoline dipped under $4. "We made a gutsy move this week in Capital One, a company that we took from a big profit to almost nothing in a painful round trip," Jim said during our June Monthly Meeting. (See here for a full list of the stocks in Jim Cramer's Charitable Trust.) As a subscriber to the CNBC Investing Club with Jim Cramer, you will receive a trade alert before Jim makes a trade. Jim waits 45 minutes after sending a trade alert before buying or selling a stock in his charitable trust's portfolio. If Jim has talked about a stock on CNBC TV, he waits 72 hours after issuing the trade alert before executing the trade. THE ABOVE INVESTING CLUB INFORMATION IS SUBJECT TO OUR TERMS AND CONDITIONS AND PRIVACY POLICY , TOGETHER WITH OUR DISCLAIMER . NO FIDUCIARY OBLIGATION OR DUTY EXISTS, OR IS CREATED, BY VIRTUE OF YOUR RECEIPT OF ANY INFORMATION PROVIDED IN CONNECTION WITH THE INVESTING CLUB. NO SPECIFIC OUTCOME OR PROFIT IS GUARANTEED.

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