Here are the 3 big things we're watching in the stock market this week

CNBC Finance

8 min read

Fears of AI disruption spread to new corners of the stock market last week. Now, a question on investors' minds entering the holiday-shortened week of trading: How much longer can this sell-first, ask-later kind of market behavior persist? Here's a closer look at the three big things on tap this week: 1. Palo Alto Networks' earnings report Tuesday night comes at a pivotal moment. It offers CEO Nikesh Arora an opportunity to refute concerns that artificial intelligence will take away market share from cybersecurity providers â the same concern that has thumped the stocks of other software vendors who sell, say, design or accounting software. We have argued that trusted cybersecurity only becomes more valuable to companies in an AI-filled world, and that the complexity of the task carries less displacement risk than other corners of enterprise software. But that hasn't stopped the market from punishing the likes of Palo Alto Networks and fellow Club name CrowdStrike in this 2026 sell-off, even if they've held up relatively better than peers in the software ETF known as the IGV and showed signs of life to end the week. Will Arora be able to completely squash that narrative and turn the conversation back to only fundamentals? It seems unlikely. But this is a chance for a well-respected cyber CEO to offer investors food for thought as they try to distinguish between software winners and losers in the age of AI. Obviously, we hope to see Palo Alto deliver better-than-expected quarterly results and guidance, especially on key metrics such as annual recurring revenue (ARR) and remaining performance obligation (RPO). Updates on the now-completed acquisitions of CyberArk and Chronosphere are also likely to be a topic of conversation. But in this fraught moment for software, strong results and an upbeat short-term outlook may not be enough to turn sentiment around, as investors aren't focused on the next three months. The worry is more existential, forcing investors to reconsider what they're willing to pay for earnings well into the future, resulting in dramatic multiple compression and lower stock prices. Consider a note from BTIG analysts published Thursday previewing Palo Alto's quarter: They said demand trends are "strong" and that they're confident the company can sustain low-to-mid-teens growth over the coming year. They reiterated their buy rating on the stock. And yet, they cut their price target by $45 per share to $200, all because they're using a lower price-to-earnings ratio. This is a tough setup. But if the business shows no cracks, that will strengthen our resolve to weather the storm. Revenue of $2.58 billion, according to LSEG. EPS of 94 cents, according to LSEG. Total RPO of $15.776 billion, per FactSet. Annual recurring revenue (ARR) of $6.128 billion, according to FactSet. 2. Our focus will shift from security to steak when Texas Roadhouse reports fourth-quarter results on Thursday night. The prevailing concern here is not AI, but the elevated cost of beef. It has pressured margins because the company has not raised prices in lockstep with beef inflation. For a restaurant chain that prides itself on attracting diners with a value-focused message, there's risk in raising prices too much. In its initial 2026 outlook, provided in November, Texas Roadhouse projected full-year commodity inflation of 7%. While live cattle futures pulled back from late October through late November, the upward march has resumed. As of Friday, they're now within a few percentage points of all-time highs. Although it's a low bar, we're hopeful Texas Roadhouse can keep its commodity inflation outlook stable. Another thing to watch: The company also typically shares its plans for menu-price changes on the fourth-quarter call, with implementation at the start of its second quarter in April. Last year, it raised prices by 1.4% in April and 1.7% in October, so the level executives choose this time around carries intrigue. Texas Roadhouse's ability to drive traffic increases that fuel same-store sales growth â the key metric for evaluating restaurants â has attracted investors to the stock. When traffic is increasing, it suggests you're gaining share relative to competitors. In the third quarter, Texas Roadhouse saw traffic growth of 4.3%, which, coupled with a 1.8% in price, translated to 6.1% same-store sales growth. If Texas Roadhouse is able to deliver continued growth in traffic in the fourth quarter, that will be something for the bulls to hang their hats on. Given that we've trimmed our position twice this year in the $180s , we're comfortable holdingÂ the stock here. But absent a clear indication that beef inflation has peaked, this isn't the place to put new money to work. Here's what Wall Street is expecting: Revenue of $1.496 billion, according to LSEG. EPS of $1.51, according to LSEG. Same-store sales growth of 5.16%, per FactSet. 3. There are also a few economic reports on our radar, headlined by Friday's personal consumption expenditures (PCE) index. That is the Federal Reserve's preferred inflation gauge. After the consumer price index (CPI) report came in cooler than expected Friday, the hope is that the PCE delivers more good news on the inflation front, giving the central bank additional cover to cut rates throughout the year. As of Friday, the market is pricing in the first cut of 2026 at the Fed's June meeting, according to the CME FedWatch Tool. That's also the first one on the calendar following the expiration of Chair Jerome Powell's term in May. As Home Depot shareholders, we want lower rates to hopefully give the still-stagnant housing market a jolt. Among the other economic reports to watch this week are the Census Bureau's look at January housing starts on Tuesday morning and new home sales on Friday morning. The National Association of Realtors' pending home sales for January are due out on Thursday. Finally, on Friday, we'll get the initial reading on fourth-quarter U.S. gross domestic product. The Atlanta Fed's real-time tracker estimates that GDP grew 3.7% in the final three months of 2025. Week ahead Monday, February 16 All major U.S. stock and bond markets, including the NYSE and Nasdaq, are closed for Presidents' Day. Tuesday, February 17 Empire State Manufacturing Survey at 8:30 a.m. ET NAHB Housing Market Index at 10 a.m. ET Before the bell: Energy Transfer LP (ET), Medtronic (MDT), SunCoke Energy (SXC), Leidos Holdings (LDOS), Vulcan Materials Company (VMC), Krystal Biotech (KRYS), Ceragon Networks (CRNT), Fluor Corp. (FLR), Allegion (ALLE), Builders FirstSource (BLDR), CNH Global (CNH) After the bell: Palo Alto Networks (PANW) ,Â Hecla Mining Company (HL), Cadence Design Systems (CDNS), Devon Energy (DVN), EQT Corporation (EQT), SSR Mining (SSRM), Toll Brothers (TOL), FirstEnergy (FE), Halozyme Therapeutics (HALO), Huntsman (HUN), Kenvue (KVUE), MKS Instruments (MKSI), Nano Nuclear Energy (NNE), Axcelis Technologies (ACLS), Celanese (CE) Wednesday, February 18 Census Bureau's Housing Starts at 8:30 a.m. ET The Fed's Industrial Production and Capacity Utilization Report at 9:15 a.m. ET The Fed's January meeting minutes at 2 p.m. ET Before the bell: Analog Devices (ADI), SolarEdge Technologies (SEDG), Garmin (GRMN), Moody's (MCO), Constellium (CSTM), Liberty Global (LBTYA), ProPetro Holding (PUMP), Bausch + Lomb (BLCO), Charles River Laboratories (CRL), Jones Lang LaSalle (JLL) After the bell: Kinross Gold (KGC), Coeur D'Alene Mines (CDE), Pan American Silver (PAAS), Carvana (CVNA), Figma (FIG), Royal Gold (RGLD), DoorDash (DASH), EquinoxÂ Gold (EQX), Remitly Global (RELY), eBay (EBAY), Occidental Petroleum (OXY), B2Gold (BTG), Cheesecake Factory (CAKE), Blue Owl Capital Corporation (OBDC), Oceaneering International (OII), Bausch Health (BHC), Nutrien (NTR), Molson Coors Beverage Company (TAP) Thursday, February 19 Initial Jobless Claims at 8:30 a.m. ET The Philadelphia Fed Index at 8:30 a.m. ET National Association of Realtor's Pending Home Sales for January at 10 a.m. ET Before the bell: Walmart (WMT), First Majestic Silver (AG), Quanta Services (PWR), Lemonade (LMND), Deere & Company (DE), Klarna (KLAR), Visteon (VC), Wayfair (W), NICE (NICE), Alight (ALIT), Southern Company (SO) After the bell: Texas Roadhouse (TXRH) ,Â Opendoor Technologies (OPEN), Newmont Mining (NEM), Transocean (RIG), Live Nation Entertainment (LYV), Sprouts Farmers Market (SFM), Akamai Technologies (AKAM), AXT (AXTI), Centerra Gold (CGAU), Copart (CPRT), Eldorado Gold (EGO), Metallus (MTUS), Ardelyx (ARDX), Barings BDC (BBDC), Chemours (CC) Friday, February 20 Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Index at 8:30 a.m. ET Fourth-Quarter GDP Report (Preliminary) at 8:30 a.m. ET Census Bureau's New Home Sales at 10 a.m. ET Before the bell: AngloGold Ashanti (AU) (See here for a full list of the stocks in Jim Cramer's Charitable Trust.) As a subscriber to the CNBC Investing Club with Jim Cramer, you will receive a trade alert before Jim makes a trade. Jim waits 45 minutes after sending a trade alert before buying or selling a stock in his charitable trust's portfolio. If Jim has talked about a stock on CNBC TV, he waits 72 hours after issuing the trade alert before executing the trade. THE ABOVE INVESTING CLUB INFORMATION IS SUBJECT TO OUR TERMS AND CONDITIONS AND PRIVACY POLICY , TOGETHER WITH OUR DISCLAIMER . NO FIDUCIARY OBLIGATION OR DUTY EXISTS, OR IS CREATED, BY VIRTUE OF YOUR RECEIPT OF ANY INFORMATION PROVIDED IN CONNECTION WITH THE INVESTING CLUB. NO SPECIFIC OUTCOME OR PROFIT IS GUARANTEED.

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Here are the 3 big things we're watching in the stock market this week

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